BP Talk

Will BP Go Bankrupt?

The Future of BP

Will BP Go Bankrupt?

07.06.10, 09:36 AM EST

The American public is quite conflicted on the future of BP.

On one hand, there's a segment of the society that would like nothing better than to see the giant oil and gas company go belly up. This makes a lot of sense on many levels, since the company has single-handedly done more to ruin the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people and business in the Gulf Coast than any other entity in the history of the United States.

But on the other hand, there's a segment of the public who wants to see BP pull out of a nosedive and make it. These people realize that thousands of people are employed by BP, from workers on the oil rig to distributors on the mainland. If BP goes under, that puts another dent in the unemployment category.

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Another reason people want to see BP survive is so the company can compensate individuals and businesses for the damages. If BP goes bankrupt, most people will receive little or nothing for their trouble.

A recent Gallup/USA Today poll revealed that 59 percent of those surveyed said BP should pay for everything, including lost wages, even if it drives the company out of business. Another 38 percent said the company should pay for as much as possible while still remaining viable.

There's no way to be sure what's likely to happen as far as bankruptcy. The U.S. government has vowed to hold BP "fully accountable" for the disaster, but no one knows what that means if the oil giant opts to file for bankruptcy, which it claims is an option.

"Bankruptcy absolutely is an option and the U.S. needs recognize that," Peter Kaufman, president and head of restructuring and distressed M&A at the Gordian Group told Bloomberg News.

The administration disagrees and Kenneth Feinberg, who was appointed by President Obama to oversee the $20 billion compensation fund, said, "That is not an option." (Perhaps the official forgot that Texaco filed bankruptcy in 1987 in order to sidestep a $1 billion settlement regarding the purchase of Getty Oil.)

The trouble is reflected in BP's price per share. In November 2007 the company's shares were selling for $80. During the bear market of 2008, the stock reached as low as $34, but they rallied with the rest of the market and were selling in the $60-62 range when the April 20 explosion occurred in the Gulf of Mexico that killed 11 people and led to the sinking of an oil rig. The per-share price began to fall on April 26 and had dropped by more than 50 percent by mid-June, where it reached 14-year lows and began to sell in the $28 range.

There is little public sympathy for BP, which already owns a miserable record in terms of breaking the rules. Two of BP refineries accounted for 97 percent of the violations recorded in the refining industry over the last three years. The company was cited for 862 violations, of which 760 were called "egregious willful." BP was hit with a record $87 million fine by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.

The bankruptcy card already has some officials worried. Louisiana's state treasure is concerned the company doesn't have the capital to afford the multi-billion in claims it already faces. The Associated Press reported that BP has a net worth of $81 billion, but most are locked up in non-liquid assets. One credit analyst has already estimated the cost of the cleanup to be at least $23 million.

A side effect of the spill is the public's perception of how the White House has handled the situation. Nearly 83 percent of Americans say BP has mishandled the spill and more than 52 percent say President Obama has mishandled the situation.

Should I invest in BP?

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